Door Number 1 or Door Number 2?
By Matthew Stein, P.E., Author of When Technology
Fails: A Manual for Self-Reliance, Sustainability and Surviving the Long
Emergency, ISBN #978-1933392455, Chelsea Green Publishing, White River Junction, VT
(800) 639-4099 www.chelseagreen.com www.whentechfails.com
Recently Katharine Walton asked me, “What is your vision
of our world or our country in 10, 20, or 50 years?”
Door #1 (Making the Shift to Sustainability):
We proactively manage the transition away from fossil
fuels and Make the Shift to Sustainability.
In ten years time, global warming and natural catastrophes are significantly
worse, but we have drastically reduced global greenhouse gas emissions. The
world is united behind efforts to replace old inefficient and polluting
industrial processes and machines with new green and efficient ones, and we are
actively replacing fossil fuel based technologies with renewable energy
technologies and other carbon-neutral energy systems. Mass transit systems expand
dramatically to help ease the transition from today’s inefficient private cars
to new super efficient shared cars, commuter buses and trains. World population, including all Third
World countries, is declining significantly under the leadership
and financial support of the Western world. At twenty years, global warming
effects peak due to delayed system response, and then the world’s climate
starts to slowly return to normal. At 50 years there is a global renaissance
throughout the world! All of this was brought about by the fact that
sustainability and optimum ecosystem health have replaced maximum short-term
gain as the number one goal of business and government. This is orchestrated
through a coordinated system of taxes, fines, global regulation, and rebates to
support those businesses and processes that are performed in sustainable ways
while penalizing those systems and processes that continue to do business in
ways that deplete the natural world, pollute our air and water, or release
significant amounts of greenhouse gases, making it financial suicide to run a
business in non-sustainable ways!
Door #2 (Business as Usual):
We continue along
our current path of maximum oil drilling and military intervention to insure
access to the world’s dwindling oil resources. Our national debt continues to
accelerate and the value of the dollar plunges due to mounting debt in the US,
lack of confidence from lender nations, and the need to offer ever higher
percentage rates to entice other countries to finance our debt, which makes it
absolutely impossible for the US to maintain its debt payments to the various
lender nations. As our dollar plunges, OPEC drops the dollar standard and no
country will finance our debt (we are too big of a risk now With the declining
dollar exacerbating the effects of oil depletion, the cost of oil climbs over
$1,000 US dollars a barrel, and the cost of energy makes it prohibitively
expensive to manufacture or transport much of anything inside the USA.
Our dollar crashes so badly that we can’t afford to buy the raw materials from
other countries to make the products we need within our own country to maintain
our infrastructure (natural gas distribution systems, freeways, electric power
utilities, water utilities, etc). Most of the US
economy collapses totally and it ripples throughout the world. Catastrophes
brought on by climate change exacerbate economic problems in countries all
around the world and the global economy collapses. Like Cuba
after the Soviet collapse, we go back to animal and human powered farming,
natural healing methods, and a local trade-based economy because our dollar
bills are worthless. The cities degrade and crumble without an economy to
support city based jobs. Climate changes wreak havoc and there is no remaining
centralized government (it went bankrupt and collapsed along with most of the US
businesses). Starvation and plagues sweep through our cities and there is a
mass exodus to the countryside. Land barons welcome people to work the fields
as share croppers and serfs. Since the oil dried up, everything from tilling
the fields to growing cotton and weaving cloth becomes very labor dependent and
people basically go back to a medieval lifestyle. As the oil dried up and the
ships stopped moving goods between the continents, massive numbers of people
starved in areas that were previously fed by once healthy ocean fisheries and
huge shipments of food from far away lands. The oceans were totally fished out
with all major fisheries collapsing, and huge areas of once fertile lands turn
into desert as a result of climate change. In the US, China and India, the
heavily irrigated fields that once fed millions of city dwellers become desert
again as aquifers are depleted, the electricity to drive the well pumps becomes
too expensive to support farming, and the ships that once brought new pumps and
spare parts stop sailing. The Earth experiences massive overshoot and die off,
settling down to a population of roughly ½ billion people (1/16th of
what it was at its peak).
Back
in the mid 1800’s, many millions of people decided that slavery was an evil
whose time had passed, and they put Lincoln
in power to end it. The world never would have defeated Hitler if it was number
ten on the priority list. Making the
Shift to Sustainability will not be easy, but it is doable and it is much
better than the alternative. We showed in the past that we could rise to the
occasion and do the right thing! Let’s
wake this world up and once again DO THE
RIGHT THING!